BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar's post-pandemic surge shifts to purge of Fed-led exuberance
May 24 (Reuters) - The dollar's overbought uptrend on rate-hike expectations is coming undone amid data suggesting the U.S. pandemic recovery may have peaked along with Fed tightening pricing, just as the ECB finally warms to ending over a decade of negative policy rates .
The dollar index broke its post-FOMC meeting, prior May low and kijun supports at 102.34/41 Tuesday and is eyeing important support at 101.33-35.
Treasury yields and Fed rate hike expectations tumbled after weaker-than-expected U.S. data , topped off by a 16.6% plunge in new home sales .
The index's fall was mitigated somewhat by sterling's slide after a very weak UK PMI raised recession fears and slammed gilt yields, but tumbling Treasury yields versus more stable bund and JGB yields undermined the dollar.
Two-year Treasury-Bund spreads have fallen from a 2.53% May highs to 2.116% currently, and 2-year Treasury spreads from 2.78% to 2.56%.
A close below 101.34, the 38.2% Fibo of 2022's rally and weekly tenkan, would raise the risk of a 50% retracement to the kijun at 99.818.
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(Randolph Donney is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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